Iea: Higher oil prices will have a significant impact on the global economy

On October 13, local time, the International Energy Agency released its Oil Market Report for October. The report said continued deterioration in the economy and rising oil prices triggered by the Opec + production cut plan were slowing global oil demand. The IEA stressed that higher oil prices, amid persistent inflationary pressures and rising interest rates, would have a significant impact on a global economy already teetering on the brink of recession.

The International Energy Agency says Opec + 's massive oil supply cuts have increased risks to global energy security. As a result, the IEA lowered its forecasts for oil demand growth in 2022 and 2023. The IEA said oil demand growth had declined gradually since 2022 and was estimated to be 340,000 b/d lower in the fourth quarter of this year than in the same period last year, with full-year oil demand growth forecast at just 1.9 million b/d in 2022. The IEA also cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2023 to 1.7 million barrels a day, 470,000 barrels a day lower than its previous estimate.

The IEA expects Opec + crude production to fall by 1 million barrels a day from November, mostly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In December, a European oil embargo against Russia will further reduce global crude production.

According to media analysis, the IEA's statement highlights the huge differences between it and Opec, which also reflects the huge differences between IEA member states and Opec member states. This divergence will seriously affect the stability of the international oil market.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) was established in 1974 as an international organization for major oil consuming countries to coordinate their oil policies and reduce their dependence on imported oil after the Middle East oil crisis. Currently, the IEA has 31 member countries.